Judges Flunk Story Problem Test, Showing Intuitive Decision-Making
Researchers who asked 295 Florida trial judges to solve three story problems have concluded their wrong answers help show judges rely primarily on intuition when making decisions.
Nearly a third of the judges failed to answer a single question correctly and a similar number got just one answer right. The judges who answered incorrectly tended to select the intuitively obvious, but inaccurate, responses. The results, although poor, were comparable to those of other well-educated adults.
The authors cited the test and other psychological studies of judicial decision-making in support of their conclusions. “Judges are predominantly intuitive decision makers, and intuitive judgments are often flawed,” says the article, called “Blinking on the Bench: How Judges Decide Cases.” The results of the study will be published in the Cornell Law Review, Legal Blog Watch reports.
The psychological studies show judges appear inclined to use intuition “when awarding damages, assessing liability based on statistical evidence, and predicting outcomes on appeal,” the article says. “They are also vulnerable to such distractions as absurd settlement demands, unrelated numeric caps, and vivid fact patterns.”
The article suggests that judges can overcome their intuitive tendencies if they are given more time to deliberate and they are encouraged to write opinions explaining their decisions. Training, peer review, and checklists could also be helpful.
The story problems are part of a so-called Cognitive Reflection Test designed to distinguish intuitive from deliberative processing. Here are the questions:
A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1.00 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? (The answer is 5 cents, not 10 cents as many people first conclude.)
If it takes five machines five minutes to make five widgets, how long would it take 100 machines to make 100 widgets? (The answer is five minutes, not 100 minutes.)
In a lake, there is a patch of lily pads. Every day, the patch doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, how long would it take for the patch to cover half of the lake? (The correct answer is 47 days, not 24 days.)
The study’s authors are Chris Guthrie of Vanderbilt University Law School, Jeffrey Rachlinski of Cornell Law School and U.S. Magistrate Judge Andrew Wistrich of the Central District of California.
